Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Final Oscar Predictions

The votes have been procured, and I see 12 nods for Lincoln.

On Thursday, January 10, the Academy Award nominees will be announced by Emma Stone and Oscar host Seth MacFarlane, marking the first time a host will announce the nominations. (Thanks to AwardsDaily for the heads up!)

Sticking to nominee predictions only, I've gone out on a limb or two, but this Oscar race is unlike any I've ever witnessed. This is a year in which Skyfall could get a Best Picture nomination and Matthew McConaughey could get a Best Supporting Actor nod. Who could've predicted that? Of course, they might not get in. Still, this has been an exciting Oscar season, and I can't wait to see what surprises the Academy hit us with on Thursday.

Note: These predictions are my entry into Film Actually's Oscar Prediction Contest. Good luck, fellow prognosticators!

Best Picture:
--Argo
--Django Unchained
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Les Misérables
--Silver Linings Playbook
--Zero Dark Thirty


I'm predicting eight nominees, but I'm really close to predicting a full lineup. Though, The Master or Django Unchained could lose out to Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall, or even Amour.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo
--Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
--Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
--David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
--Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

I'm guessing Russell gets the fifth spot, but Ang Lee, Michael Haneke, and Quentin Tarantino are still in the race.

Best Actor:
--Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

I've been thinking that Washington is out for a while, and I'm sticking with that prediction. Otherwise, Phoenix (if nominated) might get in over Hawkes, or possibly Cooper.

Best Actress:
--Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

This lineup probably won't happen. It's too safe, as someone like Emmanuelle Riva, Rachel Weisz, or Helen Mirren could sneak in.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Javier Bardem, Skyfall
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
--Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

I'm guessing De Niro will miss here, and Bardem/DiCaprio will get in. Or maybe McConaughey or Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Sally Field, Lincoln
--Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Apart from Kidman and possibly Adams, this also feels too safe. Expect a surprise here (maybe). Maggie Smith or Judi Dench, perhaps?

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Argo
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Lincoln
--The Perks of Being a Wallflower
--Silver Linings Playbook


Perks isn't a sure thing, as Life of Pi or The Sessions could get in instead.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--Django Unchained
--The Master
--Moonrise Kingdom
--Zero Dark Thirty


This appears to be a solid category, but a surprise like The Intouchables or Arbitrage could happen.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Cloud Atlas
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Les Misérables


Cloud Atlas and The Master are vulnerable, and could lose out to Django Unchained, Skyfall, Argo, or Moonrise Kingdom.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty


The Master and Django Unchained are also possible. If the Academy love it, even Les Misérables could get in.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Django Unchained
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables
--A Royal Affair


Mirror Mirror and Snow White and the Huntsman also have a shot.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty


Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, and Django Unchained are lurking just outside.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina
--Argo
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln


Cloud Atlas and The Master are wishful thinking, but this looks like the final lineup.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Misérables
--"Who Did That to You?", Django Unchained

Who knows? Maybe only one or two of these get nominated.

 Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Lincoln
--Les Misérables


Hitchcock or Men in Black 3 could also happen.

 Best Sound Mixing:
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Misérables
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty


The Dark Knight Rises could be snubbed entirely. Lincoln, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Prometheus, or The Avengers could replace it.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Skyfall
--Zero Dark Thirty


Les Misérables, Prometheus, and The Avengers are also contenders.

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi
--Prometheus


The Dark Knight Rises or even Skyfall could get in over Cloud Atlas.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave
--Frankenweenie
--The Painting
--ParaNorman
--Wreck-It Ralph


Rise of the Guardians could get in after all, but the animation branch likes to surprise.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--The Gatekeepers
--How We Survived a Plague
--The Imposter
--Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
--Searching for Sugar Man


The Invisible War
has a chance, but you never know what will be nominated here.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)
--The Intouchables (France)
--No (Chile)
--A Royal Affair (Denmark)
--War Witch (Canada)

This category is never a sure thing. Norway's Kon-Tiki or Switzerland's Sister could also sneak in.

8 comments:

  1. Interesting predictions! I don't think Bardem will get in, but who knows every year Academy makes surprising decisions. I hope Washington will get in, as for Phoenix I think since the Guild didn't show much love for him he may be out.

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    1. Thanks! Cooper and Hawkes seem to be the #3 and #4 slots behind DDL and Jackman. If I'm right on that, I think Phoenix can easily get the fifth spot. The BAFTA nod doesn't hurt.

      Now that Bardem has a BAFTA nod, I think his chances are even better for an Oscar nomination. He only missed at the Globes, which loved Django. Maybe the Academy won't be as generous to that film.

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  2. I knew you'd have a comprehensive predictions Josh! Man I'd love to see Brave win Best Animated Feature. I do think Jennifer Lawrence deserves a nod for Silver Linings Playbook, not sure about Bradley Cooper though. As for Makeup, it's interesting that you didn't put down Cloud Atlas but some people actually find the makeup off-putting.

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    1. Sadly, Cloud Atlas can't be nominated for Makeup because it didn't make the Academy's final list of 7 films.

      I preferred Cooper's performance to Lawrence's, but I'd like to see both of them recognized.

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  3. Of all these movies, I have only seen Brave, ParaNorman, and The Avengers. I'm sure you see what those three movies have in common -- they were all picked for the kid entertainment value. Ha ha! I must be the only movie buff around who almost NEVER goes to the theater. Or most of the movie buffs I know don't have kids. ;-)

    Ah well, 2013 will be a GREAT year for DVDs! I look forward to seeing how your predictions pan out.

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    1. Haha. I still need to see ParaNorman! :)

      Yeah, there will be some terrific films on DVD in the coming months.

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    2. And Django Unchained just came to the "cheap movie theater" downtown. Time for my husband and I to ditch the kiddos for the night and actually hit the theater. It's one of those rare movies we're BOTH really excited about seeing.

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    3. Ha, I read somewhere that you might not get to go, but I hope you like it, whenever you get to see it. :)

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