Early Oscar Predictions Results

In April 2013, I foolishly predicted The Counselor for 7 Oscar noms.

Since the Oscars are a week away, I wanted to see how poorly I did predicting the nominations nine months ahead of time last year. A few of the contenders were moved to 2014 (like Foxcatcher, The Immigrant and The Monuments Men), but here's how I did.

Best Picture:
American Hustle
August: Osage County
The Counselor
Foxcatcher
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
The Immigrant
The Monuments Men
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Results: American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave were nominated. (3/9)

Best Director:
George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Ridley Scott, The Counselor

Results: Cuaron, McQueen and Russell were nominated. (3/5)

Best Actor:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Year a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Results: Bale, DiCaprio, Ejiofor and McConaughey were nominated. (4/5)

Best Actress:
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Naomi Watts, Diana
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Results: Dench and Streep were nominated. (2/5)

Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, Out of the Furnace
Javier Bardem, The Counselor
Matt Damon, The Monuments Men
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant

Results: Fassbender was nominated. (1/5)

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Results: Hawkins was nominated, though Adams did get a Best Actress nod. (1/5)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Foxcatcher
The Monuments Men
12 Years a Slave

Results: Before Midnight and 12 Years a Slave were nominated. (2/5)

Best Original Screenplay:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Fruitvale Station
The Immigrant
Nebraska

Results: American Hustle and Nebraska were nominated. (2/5)

Best Production Design:
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oz the Great and Powerful
Saving Mr. Banks
Winter's Tale

Results: The Great Gatsby was nominated. (1/5)

Best Cinematography:
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
To the Wonder
12 Years a Slave
Winter's Tale

Results: Gravity and Inside Llewyn Davis were nominated. (2/5)

Best Costume Design:
Grace of Monaco
The Great Gatsby
The Immigrant
Oz the Great and Powerful
Saving Mr. Banks

Results: The Great Gatsby was nominated. (1/5)

Best Film Editing:
American Hustle
The Counselor
Gravity
The Monuments Men
Rush

Results: American Hustle and Gravity were nominated. (2/5)

Best Original Score:
The Counselor
Gravity
The Monuments Men
Rush
Winter's Tale

Results: Gravity was nominated. (1/5)

Best Original Song:
Can a Song Save Your Life?
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Monsters University
Winter's Tale

Results: No songs from these films were nominated. (0/4)

Best Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Foxcatcher
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Saving Mr. Banks

Results: None of these films were nominated. (0/3)

Best Sound Mixing:
Elysium
Gravity
Man of Steel
Rush
Star Trek Into Darkness

Results: Gravity was nominated. (1/5)

Best Sound Editing:
Elysium
Gravity
Man of Steel
Rush
Star Trek Into Darkness

Results: Gravity was nominated. (1/5)

Best Visual Effects:
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Man of Steel
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

Results: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Star Trek Into Darkness were nominated. (3/5)

Best Animated Feature Film:
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
Planes
Turbo

Results: Frozen was nominated. (1/5)

Best Foreign Language Film:
Camille Claudel 1915 (France)
The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
Hannah Arendt (Germany)
The Past (Argentina)
Unforgiven (Japan)

Results: None of these films (or countries!) were nominated. (0/5)

Overall Results: 31/101, or 31% (In 2012, I didn't predict the song or foreign film categories, and I still predicted 43 nominations correctly. Hopefully, I'll have better luck with first predictions in 2014 than I did last year.)