Wednesday, October 26, 2016

October Oscar Predictions

Scorsese's Silence is officially being released this year.

Since last monthBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk stumbled, and it doesn't seem to be a major Oscar contender after all. While The Birth of a Nation looks like it will be completely overlooked, Moonlight is coming on strong with great reviews. And Martin Scorsese's Silence is still lurking, as is (potentially) Ben Affleck's Live By Night. Check out my current predictions below.

BEST PICTURE:
Fences
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Changes: Replaced Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk and The Birth of a Nation with Hidden Figures and Lion

BEST DIRECTOR:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denzel Washington, Fences

Changes: Replaced Lee with Lonergan

BEST ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Denzel Washington, Fences

Changes: None

BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Changes: Replaced Davis (moved to Supporting) with Negga

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Neeson, Silence

Changes: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Changes: Replaced Spencer and Stewart with Davis (from Lead) and Gerwig

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Live By Night
Silence

Changes: Replaced Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk and Moonlight (deemed original) with Hidden Figures and Live By Night

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
20th Century Women

Changes: Replaced Florence Foster Jenkins with Moonlight (from adapted)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Live By Night
Rules Don't Apply
Silence

Changes: Replaced Passengers with Rules Don't Apply

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Jackie
La La Land
Live By Night
Moonlight
Silence

Changes: Replaced Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk with Jackie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
La La Land
Live By Night
Silence

Changes: None

BEST FILM EDITING:
Fences
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Sully

Changes: Replaced Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk with Fences

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Arrival
The BFG
Florence Foster Jenkins
The Jungle Book
Silence

Changes: None

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
"City of Stars" from La La Land
"Go Now" from Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go" from Moana
"I See a Victory" from Hidden Figures

Changes: Switched Moana songs

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Star Trek Beyond

Changes: None

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Changes: Replaced Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk with Silence

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Changes: Replaced Jason Bourne with Hacksaw Ridge

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Changes: None

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Miss Hokusai
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Changes: Replaced Moana with Miss Hokusai

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Elle (France)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Neruda (Chile)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

(New category added)

8 comments:

  1. I think Davis and Portman already won their Oscars with that move to supporting

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    1. Yeah, you're probably right. Who knew Portman would ever be this close to a second Oscar? (And I say that as someone who gives her two wins.)

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  2. I can't wait for the full version of the song City of Stars, the snippet is really promising!

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    1. La La Land could do very well at the CinSpecs. I can't wait to see it!

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  3. Replies
    1. The early word from festival screenings is that it's not going to be a major Oscar player. After all the hype, it looks like a non-starter.

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  4. This Davis switch/Billy Lynn non-starting is HUGE...and I love it (kind of)...but UGH at the fact that Michelle Williams may not win the Oscar. TEARS!!!

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    Replies
    1. Haha, I'm most interested in Best Actor, I think. Is it really Affleck vs. Washington? The rest of the category feels wide open.

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