September Oscar Predictions

With awards season starting soon, I've updated my Oscar predictions. I might not do another update for awhile, as predictions can change drastically on a weekly basis starting in November.

Predictions with brief commentary after the cut. Potential winners indicated with an asterisk (*).

Best Picture:
--Amour
--Anna Karenina
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--The Master
--Promised Land
--The Silver Linings Playbook

Argo, The Master, The Silver Linings Playbook, and probably Beasts of the Southern Wild are virtual locks. Les Miserables and Life of Pi are likely as well. Amour, Anna Karenina, and Promised Land are up in the air, but could very well get in. Meanwhile, I think The Dark Knight Rises has a solid chance of coming back around with a late DVD release. Lincoln looks out, but that could change.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo*
--Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
--Michael Haneke, Amour
--Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
--Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Affleck and Anderson seem to be locks. The others could easily be replaced, but Haneke has a decent chance.

Best Actor:
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master*
--Denzel Washington, Flight

Day-Lewis, Hawkes, and Phoenix are probably locked. Though Jackman and Washington are likely, there's always a chance that someone else could surprise.

Best Actress:
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
--Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook*
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Locks appear to be Lawrence and Wallis. Cotillard and Watts are close behind, with Knightley just making the cut.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master*
--Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

Hoffman is the only lock. Crowe and DiCaprio are likely, but Arkin and McGregor could be replaced.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Pauline Collins, Quartet
--Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Adams and Hathaway are pretty much locks. The rest might look completely different in January.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Anna Karenina
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--The Sessions
--The Silver Linings Playbook

At this point, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and The Silver Linings Playbook are in. The Sessions is also probable, but the last spot could also be Lincoln, Life of Pi, or something else entirely.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--The Master*
--Moonrise Kingdom
--Promised Land
--Seven Psychopaths

Amour, The Master, and Moonrise Kingdom are locked right now. The last two spots could see Django Unchained and something else get in.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Argo
--Django Unchained
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Les Miserables

Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables are likely. The rest is anybody's game.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi*
--The Master

Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and The Master are probably in. The others aren't assured a nomination.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--The Master
--Mirror Mirror

All five of these seem locked, but Django Unchained and Mirror Mirror could lose out to other films.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo*
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--The Master

Argo, Life of Pi, and The Master are likely. The other two may or may not get in.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina*
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Moonrise Kingdom

All except Moonrise Kingdom are strong possibilities, but you never know with this category.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Miserables*
--"Touch the Sky", Brave

The only locks would likely be a song from Brave and "Suddenly" form Les Miserables. When it comes to this category, nobody knows anything.

 Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Les Miserables
--Lincoln*

While Les Miserables appears to be the only shaky choice, a surprise snub often occurs here.

 Best Sound Mixing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Les Miserables*
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall

Except for Skyfall, these picks will probably be nominated. Django Unchained, Prometheus, Zero Dark Thirty, or Looper could also be in the running.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises*
--Life of Pi
--Prometheus
--Skyfall

The Avenger, The Dark Knight Rises, and Life of Pi seem to be locks. Who knows about the rest?

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Dark Knight Rises
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi*

These are very likely, but something like Prometheus could replace The Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave*
--Frankenweenie
--ParaNorman
--Rise of the Guardians
--Wreck-It Ralph

These are too good to be true, in terms of Oscar prognostication. Expect at least one surprise here.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--Bully
--The Invisible War*
--Marley
--The Queen of Versailles
--This is Not a Film

Not sure on these. Though, Bully, The Invisible War, and Marley (eligible?) have a great chance.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)*
--Barbara (Germany)
--The Intouchables (France)
--Lore (Australia)
--Our Children (Belgium)

With Rust and Bone not eligible, the lineup will look something like this. Amour, The Intouchables, and Lore have the best shot at being nominated.

So, right now my tally of winner predictions is: (Hope they're not this boring.)

Amour - 1
Anna Karenina - 3
Argo - 4 (including Best Picture)
Brave - 1
The Dark Knight Rises - 1
The Invisible War - 1
Les Miserables - 3
Life of Pi - 2
Lincoln - 1
The Master - 3
The Silver Linings Playbook - 1