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Friday, October 19, 2018

October Oscar Predictions

The Favourite could be a major player.

I'm currently predicting nine Best Picture nominees, including the newly-added Green Book. (Also, fringe contenders like Ad Astra and Peterloo have moved to next year.) I expect the main contenders are A Star is Born, Roma, First Man, Green Book, and The Favourite, but I wonder if a film we're all overlooking could sneak in. This time last year I never would've thought The Shape of Water was our Best Picture winner, though I'm guessing A Star is Born could win this year. Anyways, here's where I'm at right now.

BEST PICTURE:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR:
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

BEST ACTOR:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

BEST FILM EDITING:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
You Were Never Really Here

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Black Panther - "All the Stars"
Boy Erased - "Revelation"
Mary Poppins Returns - "???"
A Star is Born - "I'll Never Love Again"
A Star is Born - "Shallow"

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Roma
A Star is Born

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Black Panther
First Man
Incredibles 2
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
A Quiet Place

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mary and the Witch’s Flower
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet

4 comments:

  1. Stone and Weisz being in Supporting would be a bit of category fraud wouldn't it? From what I've read they both actually have more screen time than Coleman. Not that the Academy has ever batted an eyelash at that before.

    I want Cynthia Erivo for Bad Times at the El Royale to be a surprise Supporting contender. It's a long shot but she was so good in that.

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    1. True. But BSA is where Stone and Weisz are being campaigned, so I think they could both get in there.

      Erivo was great. I'd love for her to get a nom too.

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  2. I strongly agree with your predictions, i would put Jenkins instead of Lee in director, Aparicio (my lead actress winner so far) instead of Close and one of the Vice guys instead of Chalamet.

    Overall i think Roma or the Favourite could win, for the former i could see it winning BP, BD, BFL and cinematography, while the latter could do sweep the awards, with BP, BD, Supporting Actress (Weisz), Actress, O. Screenplay, Costumes and Production Design.

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    Replies
    1. I haven't seen Roma or The Favourite yet. I think A Star is Born could win Best Picture, but I'll have to watch the competition to get a better perspective. It won't surprise me if Chalamet isn't nominated, as I've had my doubts about the film for a while.

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