November Oscar Predictions

Affleck's film could go home with 4 wins.

Since my last update, Lincoln is officially a contender, and The Master could very well miss in Best Picture and Best Director. Also, Les Miserables could be the film to beat, even with Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi gaining momentum. Of course, Argo is still out in front, while films like Zero Dark Thirty, The Impossible, and Django Unchained could also feature in the Oscar race. Meanwhile, early guesses such as Promised Land, Seven Psychopaths, and Quartet are probably not going to be nominated. 

Potential winners indicated with an asterisk. (*)

Best Picture:
--Amour
--Argo*
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Silver Linings Playbook

Argo appears to be in the lead, but Lincoln and Les Miserables are still in contention. Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook appear locked, and Amour and The Master might make the cut.

Best Director:
--Ben Affleck, Argo*
--Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
--Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
--Ang Lee, Life of Pi
--Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Though Affleck is still ahead, Spielberg and Hooper are just behind, with Lee and (potentially) Anderson bringing up the rear.

Best Actor:
--Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
--Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
--John Hawkes, The Sessions
--Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
--Joaquin Phoenix, The Master*

Day-Lewis probably isn't winning a third Best Actor Oscar, so Phoenix's chances remain good. However, Hawkes or Jackman could also win, and Cooper might get in over Denzel Washington in Flight.

Best Actress:
--Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
--Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
--Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
--Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Lawrence and Wallis feel like the only locks. Next is Watts, but Riva and Cotillard could be replaced.

Best Supporting Actor:
--Alan Arkin, Argo
--Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
--Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained*
--Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
--Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Right now, DiCaprio is the likely winner. Any of the other veterans could win, or be overlooked for Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook.

Best Supporting Actress:
--Amy Adams, The Master
--Sally Field, Lincoln
--Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
--Helen Hunt, The Sessions
--Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Hathaway is still the frontrunner, with Field and Hunt being her biggest competition. Adams doesn't look like a winner, and Smith isn't a sure thing.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
--Argo*
--Beasts of the Southern Wild
--Lincoln
--The Sessions
--Silver Linings Playbook

Argo probably takes this easily, but Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln are still in the hunt. The Sessions and Beasts of the Southern Wild aren't likely to win.

Best Original Screenplay:
--Amour
--Arbitrage
--The Intouchables
--The Master*
--Moonrise Kingdom

The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, and Amour are favorites. Look for wild cards like The Intouchables and Arbitrage.

Best Production Design:
--Anna Karenina
--Cloud Atlas
--Les Miserables
--Lincoln*
--The Master

Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, or Lincoln could win. Unfortunately, it appears that Cloud Atlas and The Master have almost no shot.

Best Cinematography:
--Anna Karenina
--Life of Pi*
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Skyfall

Life of Pi looks like a typical Oscar winner, but Roger Deakins could get some votes for his deserving work in Skyfall. If votes are split, any of the other three could win though.

Best Costume Design:
--Anna Karenina*
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Mirror Mirror
--A Royal Affair

This is probably the one lock for Anna Karenina. Les Miserables or A Royal Affair could surprise, but it's really a crapshoot at this point.

Best Film Editing:
--Argo*
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master
--Zero Dark Thirty

If Argo is winning Best Picture, this is a lock. While Life of Pi is a threat, momentum could carry Lincoln to a win. The Master and Zero Dark Thirty might not even be nominated.

Best Original Score:
--Anna Karenina*
--Argo
--Life of Pi
--Lincoln
--The Master

Anna Karenina and Lincoln are the frontrunners. Life of Pi has a shot, but Argo and The Master could get snubbed.

Best Original Song:
--"Learn Me Right", Brave
--"Skyfall", Skyfall
--"Still Alive", Paul Williams: Still Alive
--"Suddenly", Les Miserables*
--"Touch the Sky", Brave

These haven't changed from my September predictions. At best, probably three of these songs get in, with Les Miserables or Skyfall winning.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
--Hitchcock
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Lincoln*

Hitchcock could steal this, but Lincoln is a safe bet.

Best Sound Mixing:
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Les Miserables
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall*

Though Les Miserables could take this, Skyfall is a critical and financial success. Life of Pi isn't a likely winner, but it's probably a lock for a nod.

Best Sound Editing:
--The Avengers
--The Dark Knight Rises
--Django Unchained
--Life of Pi
--Skyfall*

Again, Skyfall is the likely winner. Life of Pi and The Dark Knight Rises have a decent chance too.

Best Visual Effects:
--The Avengers
--Cloud Atlas
--The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
--Life of Pi*
--Prometheus

Life of Pi has this in the bag…probably. It's prestigious, and looks great from the trailer. Cloud Atlas and Prometheus are the likely runners-up.

Best Animated Feature Film:
--Brave*
--Frankenweenie
--ParaNorman
--Rise of the Guardians
--Wreck-It Ralph

Brave wins, but Wreck-It Ralph has a shot. A surprise nod or two could occur here as well.

Best Documentary Feature Film:
--Bully
--The Invisible War*
--Marley
--The Queen of Versailles
--This is Not a Film

The Invisible War seems like the winner, yet it could be snubbed. It's possible that only one or two of these get nominated.

Best Foreign Language Feature Film:
--Amour (Austria)
--The Intouchables (France)*
--Lore (Australia)
--No (Chile)
--Our Children (Belgium)

Amour might get in for Best Picture, but The Intouchables could upset here. There's usually some surprises in this category.

Winner Predictions Tally:
Anna Karenina - 2
Argo - 4 (including Best Picture)
Brave - 1
Django Unchained - 1
The Intouchables - 1
The Invisible War - 1
Les Miserables - 2
Life of Pi - 2
Lincoln - 2
The Master - 2
Silver Linings Playbook - 1
Skyfall - 2