Wednesday, April 1, 2015

April Oscar Predictions

Yes, we tried to predict these things THIS early.

My pal Fisti (of A Fistful of Films) and I have teamed up again to predict next year's Academy Award nominations. It's very early, but we haven't let that stop us. Here's a quick look at what we're thinking.

Note: We ranked our Best Picture predictions, in case the Academy goes back to five nominees. Also, we've left out Martin Scorsese's Silence, which might be a 2016 release.

BEST PICTURE:
1. Carol
2. Joy
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Revenant
5. The Danish Girl
6. Demolition
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Money Monster
9. Brooklyn
10. Steve Jobs

Fisti's Predictions:

1. Bridge of Spies
2. Demolition
3. Carol
4. Inside Out
5. Suffragette
6. The Revenant
7. The Danish Girl
8. Joy
9. Brooklyn
10. Spectre

Rankings aside, we're very close on our picks. I have more faith in Money Monster and Steve Jobs than Suffragette and Spectre, but I could see Suffragette, in particular, being a major player…or not.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Fisti's Predictions:

Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Jean-Marc Vallee, Demolition

Though I'm not ready to declare Gavron and Vallee big contenders, they have a great chance at being in the mix. However, Fisti and I are both banking on Haynes, Spielberg, and Iñárritu.

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Fisti's Predictions:

Bradley Cooper, Adam Jones
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

We agree on every slot except one, which features two potential contenders with a great year ahead. Cooper and Fassbender have several movies coming out, but I suspect Fassbender has the edge with films like Macbeth and Steve Jobs.

BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Fisti's Predictions:

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

I'm sure we'll be wrong, but we agree 100%. Still, this lineup feels way too young to actually happen, and I almost went with Meryl Streep for Ricki and the Flash.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
George Clooney, Money Monster
Robert De Niro, Joy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Jude Law, Genius

Fisti's Predictions:

Kyle Chandler, Carol
Robert De Niro, Joy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Jude Law, Genius

Again, we've got mostly the same predictions. Though, I'm very curious about Clooney's role in Money Monster, which sounds like a real showcase for him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Naomi Watts, Demolition

Fisti's Predictions:

Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol
Meryl Streep, Suffragette
Naomi Watts, Demolition

Fisti continues to have faith in Suffragette, and that could pay off when the film opens in October. I have my doubts, so I've gone with the obvious snub (Cotillard) and the unlikely Tarantino nominee (Leigh).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Steve Jobs

Fisti's Predictions:

Beasts of No Nation
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Steve Jobs

We still have a lot in common, which probably means we won't get many of these right. I don't think Beasts of No Nation will play that well, yet I could see it making the cut, especially if The Revenant turns out to be a tough sell.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Bridge of Spies
Demolition
The Hateful Eight
Joy
Money Monster

Fisti's Predictions:

Bridge of Spies
Demolition
Inside Out
Joy
Suffragette

This category seems loaded right now, but we agree on the majority of these. Though, I've gone for Tarantino's latest and a modern political thriller, while Fisti has gone with Pixar's latest and a political period drama.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Macbeth
Pan

Fisti's Predictions:

Carol
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Suffragette

We're not even close here, except for Carol. It's hard to nail these below-the-line categories, and I wouldn't be surprised if we both missed a film that will make the final Oscar lineup.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Carol
Far from the Madding Crowd
The Hateful Eight
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant

Fisti's Predictions:

Bridge of Spies
Far from the Madding Crowd
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Spectre

I'm confident in the three films we both listed, though I really regret leaving Spectre out of my lineup. Of course, it doesn't have Roger Deakins, which I'm sure helped Skyfall get some more votes than a Bond film would usually receive.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Macbeth
Pan

Fisti's Predictions:

Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Far from the Madding Crowd
Suffragette

Flashy costumes tend to show up here, so we've agreed on films like Carol and Cinderella. Far from the Madding Crowd does have a good chance at getting in, but I wonder if we're overlooking a film like Madame Bovary.

BEST FILM EDITING:
Bridge of Spies
Joy
Money Monster
The Revenant
Spectre

Fisti's Predictions:

Bridge of Spies
Demolition
Joy
The Revenant
Spectre

We're 4/5, and it's the last category in which our picks are so similar. If Demolition is a real contender, I expect it will make the cut. For now, I'm placing my stock in Money Monster, which will likely be heavy on editing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Far from the Madding Crowd
Pan
Tomorrowland

Fisti's Predictions:

Bridge of Spies
Carol
Far from the Madding Crowd
Inside Out
Spectre

12-time nominee Thomas Newman has another chance. Maybe he'll grab two more nominations (for Bridge of Spies and Spectre), but I think Michael Giacchino is more likely to be nominated for Tomorrowland than Inside Out.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Ricki and the Flash
Sing Street
Spectre

Fisti's Predictions:

The Early Years
Inside Out
Pan
Ricki and the Flash
Spectre

Expect these to be wrong. I was lucky enough to get two predictions right last time (Begin Again and The LEGO Movie), while Fisti only got one. I'm not sure I'll be so lucky this time.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Pan

Fisti's Predictions:

The Danish Girl
Southpaw
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Both of our lineups seem plausible, so I've no idea what films will actually be nominated. Hopefully, we've guessed something right here.

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Jurassic World
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland

Fisti's Predictions:

Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Throw in a list of blockbusters with a random major contender or two, and pick a few random choices. I think we're safe with Spectre, Star Wars and maybe The Revenant, but the rest could be a blunder.

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Jurassic World
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland

Fisti's Predictions:

Bridge of Spies
In the Heart of the Sea
Southpaw
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Basically the same thing as predicting Sound Mixing. I can't imagine Spectre or Star Wars missing. Everything else remains to be seen.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Jurassic World
The Martian
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Tomorrowland

Fisti's Predictions:

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Fantastic Four
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

We've gone for the obvious choices in the last few categories, but I seem to have more faith in The Martian and Tomorrowland than Fisti does.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Kung Fu Panda 3
The Little Prince
Minions

Fisti's Predictions:

The Case of Hana & Alice
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Little from the Fish Shop
The Little Prince

We might actually have several of these correct, though I wonder if studio fare will dominate this category this year instead of more low-budget foreign work.

Here's a tally of my very wrong predictions:

9 Nominations:
Carol

8 Nominations:
The Revenant

7 Nominations:
Bridge of Spies
Joy

6 Nominations:
The Danish Girl

5 Nominations:
Brooklyn
The Hateful Eight

4 Nominations:
Demolition
Money Monster
Pan
Spectre
Tomorrowland

3 Nominations:
Jurassic World
Macbeth
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs

2 Nominations:
Cinderella
Far from the Madding Crowd
Inside Out
The Martian

1 Nomination:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Beasts of No Nation
Genius
The Good Dinosaur
In the Heart of the Sea
Kung Fu Panda 3
The Little Prince
Minions
Ricki and the Flash
Sing Street
Suffragette

10 comments:

  1. YAY! We did it my friend. Now let's sit back and wait to see if we, you know, actually DID IT!

    LOL, we didn't, but it was fun regardless. Thanks for doing this with me again :-D

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    1. Haha, we totally didn't, but at least we tried!

      Thank you, too. :D

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  2. I'm looking forward to a lot of these films. And to how Eddie Redmayne handles his award season. lol

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    1. Ha, if Redmayne wins another Oscar, I think he'll spontaneously combust. And if he doesn't, I will. :P

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  3. Impressive, even though this far out it's a tough call for anything I'd be shocked if Cate misses out on a nomination. I just wish her film had a more interesting title.

    I'm also hoping that Jake Gyllenhaal doesn't get passed over again, same for Tom Hanks if his work is anywhere near the quality of Captain Phillips.

    I'm anxious to get a look at Far from the Madding Crowd which I think has a real shot at a bunch of tech awards. The original was so beautiful to look at and pretty much got screwed come award time, I think even with that cast it was seen as old fashioned in it's year what with Bonnie & Clyde and The Graduate competing. Now with this version having the literary pedigree that few other releases do and how much the academy loves that sort of film I think it's chances are better as long as the film is good. I would think Michael Sheen would have a decent shot with the complex role of Boldwood as well.

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    Replies
    1. I think Blanchett and Gyllenhaal have the best chance of being nominated, but Hanks is well-liked, which could help in a tight Best Actor field.

      The 1967 version of Far from the Madding Crowd only received a score nomination at the Oscars, so I wonder how many nominations the new version could get. I'm guessing the acting will be overlooked, unfortunately.

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  4. You guys slay me. For laughs, you should take a look back at your predictions from last April.

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    Replies
    1. Haha. Yeah, they're terrible. The only Best Picture nominee that I correctly predicted, interestingly enough, was Birdman.

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  5. Some of the early reviews for Vinterberg's Far from the Madding Crowd call it decent but not as emotionally impactful as it could have been. So I'm on the fence if I want to see it. Has been praised for the technical aspects, so you and Fisti may be right about those predictions :)

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, I'm not expecting nominations across the board, but I could see it picking up a few notices below the line.

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