Tuesday, April 1, 2014

April Oscar Predictions

Interstellar is an early favorite for a big showing.

Predicting the Oscars this early is a foolhardy venture, but I've taken the leap again, re-teaming with Fisti of A Fistful of Films. Here's a quick breakdown of what we're thinking.

Note: I'm guessing films like Macbeth, Suffragette, Far from the Madding Crowd and Carol will not be released this year, so I've left them out. Otherwise, they'd be all over my predictions.

BEST PICTURE:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Magic in the Moonlight
Trash
Unbroken

Fisti's Predictions:

Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Trash
Unbroken
Wild

We agree on all but Wild, which I think is somewhere behind Woody Allen's Magic in the Moonlight. If it gets good reviews, Magic could make the final cut, like Midnight in Paris.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Rob Marshall, Into the Woods
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

Fisti's Predictions:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Tim Burton, Big Eyes
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

I'm expecting Into the Woods to be HUGE with the Academy, but it could be another Nine for Marshall and company. Also, I'm not convinced Big Eyes and Unbroken will be near the top of the Best Picture lineup.

BEST ACTOR:
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Jack O'Connell, Unbroken
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Fisti's Predictions:

Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Brendan Gleeson, Calgary
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Jack O'Connell, Unbroken

I'd love for Gleeson to be nominated, but I don't expect this film to go anywhere in the awards season. Last year I was 4/5 in this category, so I'm hoping for the best here.

BEST ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Berenice Bejo, The Search
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Michelle Williams, Suite Française
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Fisti's Predictions:

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Michelle Williams, Suite Française
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

If Suffragette does come out this year, I'll definitely predict Mulligan. Still, I think Michel Hazanavicius' The Search could sneak into the race, and Bejo's lauded performance in The Past could be in voters' memories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Fisti's Predictions:

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Edward Norton, Birdman
Martin Sheen, Trash
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

The film might be small, but I just can't see Hoffman missing at the moment. Of course, this category is wide open. Maybe only one (Waltz) of my predictions comes true.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Viola Davis, Get on Up
Marcia Gay Harden, Magic in the Moonlight
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
Kristin Scott Thomas, Suite Française
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Fisti's Predictions:

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Viola Davis, Get on Up
Kristin Scott Thomas, Suite Française
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Suffragette

Who will get in for Into the Woods? Could it get 3 nominations in this category? This category is even more wide open than Best Supporting Actor.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Trash
Unbroken

Fisti's Predictions:

Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Suite Française
Trash
Unbroken

Musicals don't often get writing nods, but I'm expecting Woods to play like Chicago for Oscar voters. Plus, I'm not sure Suite Française will have such a strong showing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Magic in the Moonlight

Fisti's Predictions:

Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Mr. Turner

We're 4/5, but who gets the fifth spot? Woody Allen vs. Mike Leigh… I'd give the edge to Allen, as Leigh's film seems more of a longshot this year.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods

Fisti's Predictions:

Big Eyes
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Far from the Madding Crowd
Into the Woods
Suite Française

Well, at least we agree on Exodus and Into the Woods, which is probably your Oscar winner.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Gone Girl
The Immigrant
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Fisti's Predictions:

Birdman
Far from the Madding Crowd
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken

Can Roger Deakins win his first Oscar for Unbroken? Interstellar or Gone Girl could be a spoiler.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Grace of Monaco
Into the Woods
Jersey Boys
Magic in the Moonlight

Fisti's Predictions:

Big Eyes
Far from the Madding Crowd
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Suite Française

This category feels like a crap shoot. Far from the Madding Crowd could be a strong contender if it's released, but I'm expecting Into the Woods to triumph here.

BEST FILM EDITING:
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods

Fisti's Predictions:

Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Unbroken

We're pretty much in sync on these. If Unbroken does become a frontrunner, look for it to get in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Unbroken

Fisti's Predictions:

Big Eyes
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Suite Française
Unbroken

3/5 isn't bad. I'm wondering if Alexandre Desplat could get his first win for Unbroken, but watch out for Hans Zimmer's work on Interstellar.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Begin Again
Into the Woods
The LEGO Movie
Muppets Most Wanted
Unbroken

Fisti's Predictions:

The Boxtrolls
Frank
Into the Woods
The LEGO Movie
Muppets Most Wanted

Begin Again (formerly Can a Song Save Your Life?) could be a big player here, though the film might be too small. Maybe the Muppets walk away with a second Oscar.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Foxcatcher
Into the Woods
Maleficent

Fisti's Predictions:

The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods

I'd pick Into the Woods, which is the only film we've both predicted, to go all the way. Who knows? It might not even make the Academy's longlist.

BEST SOUND MIXING:
Fury
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Into the Woods

Fisti's Predictions:

Fury
Godzilla
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

I don't have as much faith in Unbroken, but most of these films are legitimate contenders for a win.

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Fury
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction

Fisti's Predictions:

Black Sea
Fury
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Unbroken

There's often a surprise here. I just wonder if either of us has pegged it.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Noah

Fisti's Predictions:

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again
Interstellar
Noah

We agree on all 5 picks, which means we're probably in for a surprise in January.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie

Fisti's Predictions:

The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
When Marnie Was There

I'm not sure if we'll have 5 nominees this year, but Fisti's other picks could be contenders.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Canada
China
France
Germany
Spain

Fisti's Predictions:

Coming Home (China)
Living is Easy with Eyes Closed (Spain)
Trash (Brazil)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)
Winter Sleep (Turkey)

I'm not even bothering with films this year, as I missed all 5 countries and films last year. Though, I'd love to see the Dardennes' Two Days, One Night recognized.

I've skipped the docs and short categories, but here's a tally of my predictions (excluding my foreign predictions). I can't wait to see how wrong I am.

12 Nominations:
Into the Woods

10 Nominations:
Interstellar

8 Nominations:
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice

6 Nominations:
Unbroken

4 Nominations:
Big Eyes
Magic in the Moonlight

3 Nominations:
Birdman
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Godzilla
The Hobbit: There and Back Again

2 Nominations:
Fury
The LEGO Movie
Suite Française
Trash

1 Nomination:
Begin Again
The Boxtrolls
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Get on Up
Grace of Monaco
The Grand Budapest Hotel
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Immigrant
Jersey Boys
Maleficent
A Most Wanted Man
Muppets Most Wanted
Noah
The Search
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Wild

6 comments:

  1. YAY! I'm adding the direct link to your post now. This was fun. Glad we teamed up again.

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    1. Thanks man! Same here. I love teaming up for the Oscars! :)

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  2. Impressive with all these predictions so early! I can't believe Chris Nolan, PT Anderson, Burton and Fincher currently have zero oscars for directing! Surely that will change soon.
    Berenice Bejo for The Search is a solid pick, especially based on her past couple of performances.

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    1. Thanks! Actually, I haven't even given any of them wins for directing yet either. I give Nolan and PT Anderson wins for writing, though. Either way, they all deserve Oscars. :)

      The Search is a bit of a wild card. It could be big, but it might not even register during award season.

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  3. What about Chivo for Knight of Cups (if it comes out). Plus, I really hope Trash doesn't get a Best Picture nod or any nomination for Stephen Daldry. To me, he's the Oscar-bait equivalent to Michael Bay.

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    1. If Knight of Cups comes out this year, I think it will be overlooked, like To the Wonder last year.

      Haha. I'm not a big Daldry fan, but I could see the Academy nominating Trash for several awards. Then again, the film could easily be overlooked by voters.

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